US
Stay up to date on commentary related specifically to US markets.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Are Tariffs Over? Court Ruling Isn't the End
Trump's tariffs now face a legal battle. Tariffs may be less arbitrary and reduced in severity or duration, but the next steps are complicated and likely to extend uncertainty.
Credit Spreads: Under the Radar, but Influential
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
No Hard Feelings: Soft vs. Hard Divide Persists
There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
Hate It or Love It: Sentiment's Message
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
"Soft" Data Hits Hard: Why Does Sentiment Matter?
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a so-called "soft" report, not reflecting "hard" data like GDP or CPI. It moved markets recently, so how much attention should investors pay?
Why Is the U.S. Dollar Declining?
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
Dominoes: Recessions' History Guide
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
The State of Rates and the Bond Market During Uncertainty
Collin Martin and Kathy Jones dissect the current environment for different types of bonds and bond investors.