Turnaround Tuesday? Stocks Up as Tech Results Loom

Published as of: December 2, 2025, 9:12 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) After investors shied from risk yesterday, they began to tentatively re-embrace it this morning as Bitcoin (/BTC) and tech stocks advanced ahead of the open. Today lacks major data before numbers pick up with a private sector jobs report tomorrow, while this afternoon brings earnings from two smaller tech players: Marvell Technology (MRVL) and CrowdStrike (CRWD). Salesforce (CRM) reports tomorrow afternoon.

There's a bit of near-term hedging in the market, reflected in yesterday's 5% Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) gains before a pullback early today. This could reflect worries about a potential rate hike in Japan later this month, which might cause investors there to repatriate money by selling U.S. stocks and bonds. Treasury yields spiked yesterday and climbed today to 4.11% for the benchmark 10-year note, well above recent lows near 4%. A jump in the prices-paid component of November's ISM Manufacturing Index raised inflation concerns and contributed to the yield rise, though investors still see an 87% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On Monday, stocks declined moderately to end a five-session winning streak for the S&P 500^® index, hurt partly by a big drop in cryptocurrency values that might reflect declining speculative sentiment. Investors will likely watch this afternoon's earnings for AI and tech demand trends after a solid outing from MongoDB (MDB) sent shares of that software firm soaring early today, while crypto could again help direct traffic.

1. Data suggest inflation, but shoppers show up: Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing Index featured a declining headline number, rising prices, and weaker employment. None of this is moving in the right direction if you're bullish about the market, and manufacturing data sometimes get reflected later in company balance sheets, though earnings have marched upward this year despite the soft manufacturing base. While the ISM price data could support arguments for a rate pause, weak ADP jobs data tomorrow—if that's what Wall Street gets—might reinforce arguments in favor of a rate cut next week. It would follow a relatively strong September government jobs reading, though two of the last four official reports showed monthly drops. And last week, ADP said there were weekly drops in employment averaging 13,500 during a series of weeks through early November. One thing weighing against lackluster job market numbers is consumer spending, as holiday sales appear resilient. According to Adobe Analytics (ADBE), "Cyber Monday" sales grew 4.5% versus last year from midnight to 6:30 pm ET yesterday. 
    
2. "Yen carry" sell-off repeat seen unlikely: Yesterday saw tech dip after hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda as traders sold on fears of another "yen carry" sell-off. The yen rose versus the dollar. "Changes in government bond yield differentials can influence both the dollar/yen and U.S. Treasury yields," said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "The BOJ looks more likely to hike in December after Ueda's comments but could still wait until January. Any changes to Fed rate cut expectations for December would also impact the currency pair. That said, I don't think we would repeat the market volatility experienced in August 2024, as speculative traders are not positioned extremely short like they were then." It's a bit difficult to pinpoint market positioning because the U.S. government shutdown means Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data are only updated through mid-October. Back then, speculative traders were positioned net-long yen. "Without extreme shorts—and related short covering that results in forced trading—we are unlikely to repeat the 2024 volatility," Gibley said. "However, it is possible that BOJ hikes and Japanese government bond yield increases result in selling of risky assets globally—but is more likely to occur at a gradual pace."
    
3. Leadership broadening: A question to ponder as the year winds down is whether the market is still in a narrow leadership regime driven by mega-cap tech or is sector rotation showing signs of broadening out. Last week saw a rebound in market breadth across the major indexes as the number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages reached 58% and seven stocks advanced for every one stock that fell. While volume was light, that's still encouraging, and so was the revival in slumping transport stocks last week—perhaps a sign of growing interest in areas beyond AI. Breadth slipped to 52% by late Monday, below the long-term average, but almost half of S&P 500 stocks rose despite the index falling slightly. 

MongoDB (MDB), a document database company, saw shares soar 22% early today after earnings late Monday far surpassed expectations and revenue topped consensus on solid growth for its Atlas product. The firm also issued better-than-expected guidance. 
 

Bitcoin climbed 2% early Tuesday to above $87,000, and shares of crypto-related stocks including Coinbase (COIN), Strategy (MSTR), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) were among the overnight leaders. One level to watch on any strong bitcoin rally might be just under $95,000, the 20-day moving average. Yesterday's 5.5% bitcoin drop marked its worst day since March.

Nvidia (NVDA) inched up early Tuesday after light gains Monday. Shares haven't recorded back-to-back daily gains since early November.

Marvell Technology rose 2.6% ahead of this afternoon's earnings report, where guidance will be key after a disappointing outlook last time the firm reported. That was in August, when shares fell 18% as data center revenue also was short of expectations, CNBC reported at the time. Shares spiked 46% between then and Monday.

Stocks related to chips and AI generally advanced early Tuesday including Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Palantir (PLTR), Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

Shares of Symbotic (SYM), a robotics warehouse automation company, fell nearly 5% ahead of the open after getting downgraded by Goldman Sachs (GS) to Sell from Neutral. While Symbotic's warehouse automation technology has been very well received by Walmart (WMT), bookings from other new independent customers have been limited in recent years, the analyst said.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rose 1.6% in early trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that Netflix (NFLX) has sweetened its offer for the company, while Paramount Skydance (PSKY) and Comcast (CMCSA) have submitted second bids, Barron's said.

Yesterday saw weakness in homebuilder, automobile, and many consumer stocks—as well as financials—following the rise in Treasury yields. The rise also had a negative follow-through Monday for some of last week's outperformers, notably the Russell 2000 (RUT) index of small-cap stocks, which are rate sensitive. 

Technically, support for the S&P 500 index appears on the charts near 6,770, potentially a level to watch on any pullback.

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The dollar lost ground to the yen early this week (USD/JPY—candlesticks) but remains relatively high at above 155. The dollar had gained on the yen amid ideas that the new Japanese prime minister favored lower rates, but yesterday's hawkish remarks out of the Bank of Japan raised ideas a rate hike may be coming. Generally, the S&P 500 index (SPX-purple line), has climbed along with the dollar over the last six months, but fell back in August 2024 when the dollar descended versus the yen following the institution of tighter Japanese rate policy.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

December 3: ADP November employment, November ISM Services Index, September industrial production, and expected earnings from DollarTree (DLTR), Macy's (M), Salesforce (CRM), and Snowflake (SNOW).

December 4: November Challenger Job Cuts and expected earnings from Kroger (KR), Dollar General (DG), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE).

December 5: September personal income and spending, September PCE and core PCE, October factory orders, and University of Michigan preliminary December consumer sentiment. 

December 8: Expected earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL) and Oracle (ORCL).

December 9: Q3 Productivity, October Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey and earnings from AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Campbell's (CPB), Casey's General Stores (CASY), and GameStop (GME).