Stocks Waver After Data Paint Mixed Jobs Picture

Published as of: December 4, 2025, 9:12 a.m. ET

(Thursday market open) For the second straight day, jobs data dominated early proceedings. November U.S. layoffs fell, according to the Challenger Job Cuts report, but still posted three-year highs for the month. However, weekly initial jobless claims plunged to three-year lows, a possible conundrum as the Federal Reserve gathers next week. Stocks flattened as investors assessed the data and awaited more key numbers due Friday.

Job cuts fell from October's heavy 153,000 but still rose 23% from November 2024, more evidence of labor softness. Then again, jobless claims of 191,000 were nearly 30,000 below estimates, though data collection may have been skewed by the holiday. The Fed—which has juggled slowing jobs growth with stubborn inflation all year—gets another quiver in the prices arrow tomorrow with the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, so trading could be featureless today ahead of that key report. Treasury yields rose slightly after today's data.

Major indexes climbed Wednesday for the second straight day but only mildly. Gains were far broader than on Tuesday, with about three-quarters of S&P 500^® stocks up. It's often positive when rallies broaden beyond the mega-caps, though market breadth remains lackluster. Futures trading now bakes in an 87% chance of a rate cut next Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "We expect the Fed to lower the target range for the fed funds rate to somewhere in the 3.0% to 3.5% range over the next year, implying two- to-three additional 25 basis-point rate cuts," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).

1. Inflation data loom: Consensus for headline PCE—due at 10 a.m. ET Friday, 90 minutes behind its normal release time and after the open—is 0.3%, equal to the August rise. For core PCE, which excludes food and energy, analysts expect 0.3%, up from 0.2% in August, Briefing.com said. Another key element is annual core PCE, which analysts see at 2.9% after it rose that same amount in August. That's well above the Fed's 2% target. Though the numbers date back to September, they're among the handful of official data the Fed have for its meeting, meaning private readings like yesterday's ADP employment report and Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment data take on more importance. Sentiment has slumped for months, possibly indicating job concerns, though higher prices could also have consumers feeling grumpy. The PCE report is unlikely to change what appears to be an almost certain rate cut next week, though worse-than-expected data could move the Fed toward a more "hawkish cut" where policymakers vote to ease but warn of a pause ahead. "We expect another rate cut next week, but it's not a slam dunk, and there are likely to be multiple Fed officials who dissent from whatever decision is made," said Michael Townsend, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab.
    
2. Latest VIX and greenback trends: The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, fell to its lowest point in more than a month Wednesday below 16, indicating that investors expect less choppy markets in the near term. December tends to be a seasonally strong time for equities, which may be reflected in the VIX after some hedging activity last week. Contracts farther out remain higher than near-term VIX levels, meaning investors appear to expect more rough sledding in early 2026. It might be useful to keep an eye on those outer contracts for any hints of calm or turbulence. Another metric to regularly check is the U.S. dollar index ($DXY), which slid versus the yen this week on concern that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might hike rates later this month even as the Fed is expected to cut rates. Weak U.S. economic data also weighed, and the dollar sank under 99 after briefly topping 100 last month. It remains down about 10% this year. "As the advantage that U.S. yields currently offer above other developed market bonds offer declines, the dollar looks likely to continue trending lower over the course of the next few quarters, and we expect volatility to remain elevated," Schwab experts wrote in a recent look at the markets. 
    
3. Bitcoin's big guns: Amid the speculation over another possible bitcoin "winter," which have come with declines of up to 80%, it's worth considering that 2025's bitcoin isn't 2022's bitcoin. Bitcoin has, to a degree at least, gone mainstream with institutions becoming major investors after the trading of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was approved in early 2024. (See Harvard's stake of nearly half a billion dollars, for just one example.) That has resulted in huge gains in bitcoin market liquidity as well as its market cap and price, according to a joint report from data provider Glassnode and asset manager Fasanara Digital. It all adds up to a "more institutionally anchored asset" that isn't as volatile as it was just a few years ago, they said. That doesn't mean the current slide is over, but it does mean the bulls have some big guns on their side.

Salesforce popped 1.7% in pre-market trading after easily topping analysts' earnings expectations and narrowly beating on revenue. Its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter was roughly in line and revenue guidance topped Wall Street's estimates, while results from Agentforce, the company's AI business, impressed.

Snowflake plunged more than 8% ahead of the open despite better-than-expected earnings and revenue, along with guidance for 27% fourth quarter product revenue growth. Shares of the data warehousing firm were up more than 70% year to date heading into the report, so this weakness could reflect "buy the rumor" sentiment.

Dollar General (DG) climbed more than 5% before the open after reporting solid earnings and raising guidance.

Bitcoin futures (/BTC) were slightly down early after sharp gains the last two sessions. Shares of crypto-related stocks including Coinbase (COIN), Strategy (MSTR), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) slipped.

Nvidia (NVDA) inched higher early Thursday along with several other AI-related names like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Broadcom (AVGO) ahead of key Broadcom and Oracle (ORCL) earnings next week that could help set the near-term tone for the sector. Nvidia may have also benefitted from a Barron's report that the U.S. annual defense bill is unlikely to contain a measure Nvidia had opposed requiring Nvidia and its peers to give U.S. customer priority on AI chips ahead of foreign buyers.

This morning's AI trade wasn't one-dimensional. Several big names were also lower before the open including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Marvell Technology (MRVL).

Microsoft (MSFT) sank more than 2% Wednesday after a media report said it's reducing AI software quotas or targets for its salespeople. Microsoft denied this report. It came as AI competition heats up after Alphabet (GOOGL) launched its Gemini 3 AI model, seen as a competitive threat to OpenAI, where Microsoft has a large stake.

Five Below (FIVE) climbed 4% in pre-market trading following earnings from the retailer that easily topped analysts' estimates and revenue that also came in above expectations. Sales at stores open a year or more climbed more than 14% from a year earlier.

Toll Brothers (TOL) rose 1.6% ahead of the open after homebuilder stocks had a strong Wednesday amid hopes for rate cuts. Still, weekly mortgage applications fell 1.4% as the 30-year mortgage rate remained well above 6%.

Tesla (TSLA) leaped 4% Wednesday despite the Trump administration announcing it would ease former President Biden's fuel economy rules, news that helped General Motors (GM) and other auto stocks. Tesla shares might have benefited from a report in Politico saying Trump is considering ways to accelerate robotic development.

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The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX—candlesticks) is up almost 15% from the low it forged on November 20. Over the same period, Nvidia (NVDA—purple line)—the biggest stock in the sector—has barely moved. It closed just under $180 yesterday, up from November lows but well behind the index. This suggests that other stocks are picking up the slack in Nvidia's absence from the charge. Nvidia is still up about 29% year to date and far above its April low below $87.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

December 5: September personal income and spending, September PCE and core PCE, October factory orders, and University of Michigan preliminary December consumer sentiment. 

December 8: Expected earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL).

December 9: Q3 Productivity, October Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey and earnings from AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Campbell's (CPB), Casey's General Stores (CASY), and GameStop (GME).

December 10: FOMC rate decision, FOMC projections, and expected earnings from Chewy (CHWY), Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Synopsys (SNPS).

December 11: November PPI and core PPI and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN), Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), and lululemon (LULU).