Tech Gives Early Lift As Market Digests BOJ, Nike
Published as of: December 19, 2025, 9:10 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® index | 6,774.76 | +53.33 | +0.79% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 47,951.85 | +65.88 | +0.14% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 23,006.36 | +313.04 | +1.38% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.15% | +0.04 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.66 |
+0.24 |
+0.24% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 16.29 | -3.44 | -0.58% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $56.62 | +$0.47 | +0.84% |
| Bitcoin | $88,000 | +$2,524 |
+2.95% |
(Friday market open) Stocks clicked higher after a four-day losing streak ended yesterday and investors digested earnings from FedEx (FDX) and Nike (NKE). Both stocks lost ground, but the tech sector showed signs of life thanks to a rally in Oracle (ORCL) while bitcoin futures (/BTC) surged almost 4%, a potential sign of improved "risk-on" sentiment. Still, the stock market is on pace for its second straight losing week.
A Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike put central bank policy center stage early Friday. Though not unexpected, the decision puts rates there at a 30-year high and means Japanese investors might extract money from U.S. investments and put it to work at home as yields grow more attractive. U.S. Treasuries, along with the dollar, could be canaries in the coal mine for such moves, and yields ticked up this morning. It's also a good day to monitor U.S. stock volatility, which could be unsettled today due to quarterly options expiration. This so-called "triple witching" often leads to greater trading activity and increased volatility.
Major indexes rebounded Thursday thanks to a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and solid Micron (MU) results, though skepticism abounds regarding CPI due to the shutdown's impact.Today brings the final December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading after the preliminary data edged up but remained historically low. Briefing.com consensus for headline sentiment is 53.3, unchanged from the preliminary. Uncertainty persists amid various crosscurrents in the U.S. economy, and that's hurt sentiment.
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Three things to watch
- November CPI isn't necessarily last word: Lower inflation—if persistent—could bring rate cuts next year, lending support to small-caps and cyclical areas like financials, materials, and industrials. However, there's concern about November CPI's accuracy given the shutdown and lack of October data. "I worry about revisions given the incomplete nature," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). November data didn't start getting collected until the middle of the month. Also, analysts' annual CPI consensus was 3.1% and the actual was 2.7%—the biggest miss since May 2009, according to Bloomberg, and one that suggests confusion. Even if the cooler data—driven partly by housing—continue, it's not a completely rosy picture for stocks. While less inflation could bring market-supportive rate cuts, it also suggests companies are losing pricing power as consumers rebel against rising costs, possibly weighing on margins. As for rate cuts, odds of a move next month are 26%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with chances for at least one cut by March above 50%.
- Results from FedEx, Nike mulled: Earnings from FedEx late yesterday topped Wall Street's consensus and the company raised the low end of its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook. Results didn't move the needle for shares, which slipped 1.5% early despite signs of progress in the company's cost-cutting initiative. Nike also beat consensus for earnings and revenue but shares skidded 11% before the open, possibly reflecting a 17% revenue dip in its important Greater China market. That was the sixth consecutive quarter of weaker Nike sales there. Analysts reviewing Nike's results said demand remains uncertain and guidance looks conservative, with a forecast for declining fiscal third quarter sales. With Nike and FedEx done, earnings news enters hibernation the next two weeks.
- "Consolidation" may not be over: Investors often hear the market is "consolidating." Despite Thursday's rebound, it may be the case now, meaning major indexes track back and forth over previously trodden territory without clear direction. Caution persists as participants balance constructive longer-term trends against near-term macro uncertainty. Conviction is selective, rather than broad, though market breadth remains relatively healthy with around 56% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving averages. In a sign of improving breadth, more stocks rose than fell Wednesday even when the index lost more than 1%, highlighting weakness in the largest names and broad strength below the surface as the market continues to churn. "Broadening is likely to remain a theme in 2026, though not necessarily in a linear fashion," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, SCFR. Despite the recent breadth improvement, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, slipped from above 70 for the SPX in October to below 50 at times even during Thursday's rally, and the SPX is on pace for its first monthly decline since April. The Average Directional Index (ADX) languishes at 14, showing no meaningful trend in place.
On the move
Oracle (ORCL), which has been sliding for weeks, climbed 4% today after a report stated that TikTok has an agreement to sell its U.S. business to a joint venture controlled in part by Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi-based MGX.
Micron (MU) rose 10% Thursday and another 1.4% before today's open after earnings and revenue easily topped consensus views and fiscal second quarter guidance left analysts' consensus far behind. The high-bandwidth memory chips Micron makes are used in AI data centers, meaning it is an AI barometer, and demand for those chips helped boost Micron's results.
AI- and chip-related stocks, which climbed yesterday on support from Micron, traded mostly higher early today. Shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) led the pack with early 5% gains, while Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) both rose 1% ahead of the open. There's a Reuters report today saying that the U.S. is reviewing sales of advanced NVDA AI chips to China.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) slipped 1% in the early going Friday after getting downgraded to neutral from overweight by JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Lockheed's pension cash flow headwind in 2027 should make it difficult to grow cash flow, the analyst contended.
Lyft (LYFT) slowed 3% in early action following a downgrade to underperform by Wedbush, which previously had the stock at neutral. The firm believes Lyft is most at risk to the impact of autonomous vehicle disruption, given the company's exposure to the U.S. ridesharing market and undiversified offering mix.
Lamb Weston (LW) fell 5% despite quarterly results exceeding analysts' earnings and revenue estimates. It also guided above consensus for fiscal 2026.
KB Home (KBH) sank more than 4% despite quarterly results that topped analysts' estimates for earnings and revenue. Home deliveries fell 9% during the quarter, however, and profit dropped sharply from a year earlier. New orders are also down. The company called housing market conditions "challenging" due to lower consumer confidence, affordability concerns, and elevated mortgage rates.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) climbed 2% ahead of the open after announcing the expansion of its strategic partnership with Google Cloud.
Winnebago (WGO) accelerated 19% in early trading on better-than-expected earnings.
Bitcoin futures (/BTC) advanced almost 3%, helping lift shares of Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) 3% and 2%, respectively. Around $23 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire next Friday, Bloomberg pointed out, and positioning around that expiry reflects a divide between positive and negative outlooks. Volatility in bitcoin and other crypto tokens edged up this week.
More insights from Schwab
Year-end look at economy: After a 2025 characterized by policy uncertainty, Schwab's Sonders and Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, SCFR, take a look back and ahead to 2026 in their new On Investing podcast. "The economy has proven to be incredibly resilient," Sonders said. "The market has done what it often does, which is climb a wall of worry."
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--179516" >Year-end look at economy: After a 2025 characterized by policy uncertainty, Schwab's Sonders and Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, SCFR, take a look back and ahead to 2026 in their new On Investing podcast. "The economy has proven to be incredibly resilient," Sonders said. "The market has done what it often does, which is climb a wall of worry."
Futures trading on thinkorswim®: Schwab's new video offers tips on how to customize the thinkorswim desktop platform for trading futures. This includes being able to track large futures trades that could potentially move the markets.
Chart of the day
Data source: ICE. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The U.S. dollar remains wobbly, and the recent rate cut by the Fed and rate hike by the Bank of Japan could continue to weigh on the greenback. The dollar index ($DXY–candlesticks), dipped below the 50-day moving average of 98.60 (blue line) recently for the first time since September, not long after it fell to four-year lows below 97. The dollar's Relative Strength Index, or RSI (bottom chart), remains near oversold territory at 39, and moved slightly higher this week. That could indicate improving momentum, but fundamentals might continue to work against rallies as the dollar finishes one of its worst years in the last few decades.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
December 22: No major earnings or data expected.
December 23: October durable goods orders, third quarter GDP—second estimate, and November new home sales.
December 24: No major earnings or data expected; U.S. markets close at 1:00 p.m. ET.
December 25: Markets closed for Christmas.
December 26: No major earnings or data expected.