Market on Edge Watching Strait as Chip Firm Debuts
Published as of: July 10, 2026, 9:12 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,543.64 | +60.93 | +0.81% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 52,487.41 | +139.02 | +0.27% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 26,206.89 | +336.23 | +1.30% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.54% | +0.01 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.87 | -0.03 | -0.03% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 15.78 | -0.05 | -0.32% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $72.28 | +$0.20 | +0.24% |
| Bitcoin | $64,565 | +$1,180 | +1.86% |
(Friday market open) On pace for a positive week, major indexes struggled for footing early Friday, eyeing earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and awaiting the U.S. debut of South Korean chip giant SK Hynix (SKHY). In the background, attacks continued rocking the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has slowed considerably late this week. The ceasefire looks tenuous, though oil stayed relatively tame early today amid doubts that full-scale war would return.
Chip stocks—which direct traffic regularly on Wall Street—stepped back early Friday to push down the Nasdaq after their sharp advance Thursday. Results from semiconductor sector giants ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) are highlights next week, along with big banks. Data also accelerates in the coming days. Notably, Tuesday's June Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out the same day Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies to Congress. Fasten those seatbelts for one of the quarter's busiest weeks.
Seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose Thursday, led by tech, consumer discretionary, and financials. Defensive sectors pulled back. About 63% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving averages, up from 50% a month ago in a sign of healthy breadth. Looking ahead, trading could be sluggish today ahead of next week's earnings and data, and as participants fret about possible weekend developments in the Middle East. Qatar is in discussions with the U.S. and Iran to ease tensions, The New York Times reported this morning.
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Three things to watch
- A sign of some 'speculative excess': With major market indexes surging this year, some investors have begun leaning on margin to chase additional upside. Debit balances in securities margin accounts hit a record $1.42 trillion in May, according to FINRA data, up 53.7% from a year ago. That is evidence of some "speculative excess," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). The recent correction in areas like memory makers for AI infrastructure may have wrung out some of the leverage. But margin debt has surged around past market peaks, including in 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst and in 2007 prior to that financial crisis. High margin debt isn't necessarily a leading indicator of a pending market selloff; it can sit near record highs for extended periods while bull markets rage on. Still, it does make the market more vulnerable if stocks begin to drop. When prices fall, investors with excessive margin can breach maintenance requirements, leading brokers to force sales that can push prices even lower in a deleveraging cascade. High margin debt may not signal a market top, but can act as an accelerant when markets begin to correct.
- Bank earnings approach: Big banks report next week and their leaders could offer thoughts on inflation, consumer and business spending, credit and loan conditions, and the path of the economy. Tuesday morning is the highlight, when JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and four other Wall Street giants report. The nearly 20% rise in the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) between the end of March and late June outpaced a 13% gain in the broader market, suggesting investors still see banks benefiting from economic fundamentals. But fundamentals are in question, despite a bright earnings picture, amid worries that a hawkish Fed could remove the punch bowl. Futures trading bakes in 61% chance of a September rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Weaker-than-expected first-quarter consumer spending data and sluggish June jobs growth raised fresh economic concerns just as investors have begun to anticipate rising rates. A resumption of Middle East hostilities this week brings more questions. While banks are expected to deliver solid earnings, shifting economic and monetary trends makes the future hazy. "The big banks report early in the earnings season and can often set the tone for the whole market," said Alex Coffey, senior trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab.
- Sector tug of war continues: The small-cap Russell 2000® (RUT) index jumped in front of other sectors with the biggest gains of the day, and in general has been helped by the Fed's 2024-2025 easing cycle. "While S&P 500 participation is still lagging behind, the recovery in small-cap breadth is notable," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR. "Continued participation from the likes of industrials, financials, and small caps would be consistent with a stable economic message." However, chips pulled ahead of cyclical stocks this week, with chips extending their lead Thursday as the Nasdaq outdueled the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Support for chips late this week reflected heavy interest in shares of SK Hynix. Positive words about chip equipment demand from leadership at Applied Materials (AMAT) also lifted the sector. Also aiding tech in general is expectations for strong second quarter earnings growth. A new FactSet earnings estimate is due later today.
On the move
- Delta Air Lines shares descended more than 3% early despite quarterly results that topped analysts' expectations. The company also issued guidance that looked strong versus consensus for the third quarter and reaffirmed full-year guidance. The company's CEO told CNBC this morning that travel demand is very healthy and making up for the rising cost of fuel.
- SK Hynix will begin trading at $149 per share today and is the largest U.S. listing ever by a foreign company, CNN Business noted, outpacing China's Alibaba (BABA). The company—which competes with Micron (MU) in the memory sector—is listed on the Nasdaq with a $1 trillion market capitalization after soaring so far this year in South Korean trading.
- Shares of chip stocks including Western Digital (WDC), Intel (INTC), and Sandisk (SNDK) were among this morning's weakest performers, possibly hurt by ideas that investor funds today could flow toward SK Hynix.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) soared 13% in early trading, bolstered by news that it has U.S. government approval to launch a crypto-focused bank, Circle National Trust. In a release, Circle said the bank strengthens the infrastructure of USDC, the world's largest regulated stablecoin. Other crypto-related stocks including Coinbase Global (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) gained as well.
- J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) accelerated 4% early today after Bernstein raised its rating to outperform from market perform, noting better market conditions and earnings geared to follow through an eventual peak in truck rates.
- Meta Platforms (META) climbed another 3% this morning after advancing 4% Thursday. Strength came as the company made a series of announcements yesterday related to its AI capabilities, and on a Reuters report that Meta plans to produce a new AI chip beginning in September.
- Checking technical matters, the Nasdaq Composite and PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) both managed to close above their 50-day moving averages after falling below them earlier this week, though SOX remains 11% below its June peaks.
More insights from Schwab
The long-term shift facing investors: A roughly 25-year period of globalization, low inflation, relatively stable economic growth, and favorable conditions for both stocks and bonds is ending, and investors may be now entering a more temperamental era, which SCFR Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy Collin Martin discussed in the latest episode of On Investing.
Addressing the fears around Social Security: While headlines around possible Social Security cuts can sound alarming, the projected shortfall isn't the same thing as it disappearing. Schwab's tax and political experts wrote about the status of Social Security payments, including the fact that there's no cut to current or future benefits.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
U.S. crude oil futures (/CL—candlesticks) briefly topped the 200-day moving average earlier this week after trending below it earlier this month. Trading in recent days has been both above and below that line, but no firm direction has been set. If the rally resumes and crude tops the 200-day, there appears to be possible resistance at a trend line (red line) near $81.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
July 13: No major data or earnings expected.
July 14: June Consumer Price Index (CPI), congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C).
July 15: June Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI, Fed Beige Book, and expected earnings from ASML (ASML), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), Progressive (PGR), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Airlines (UAL), and J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT).
July 16: Expected earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), US Bancorp (USB), Netflix (NFLX), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
July 17: June housing starts, June building permits, June industrial production, July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and expected earnings from Travelers (TRV), Truist Financial (TFC), and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB).