Waiting Game: Fed Meets As Job Openings Data Loom

Published as of: December 9, 2025, 9:10 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Investors are hunkered down waiting for tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision, with stocks flat to slightly lower early. Odds of a rate cut neared 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. While the main course gets served tomorrow, job openings data soon after today's open offer an appetizer. Meanwhile, investors will likely eye cryptocurrencies, volatility, and yields, a three-headed monster that ganged up on Wall Street yesterday.

One possibility is a "hawkish cut," in which Fed policy makers slice rates but warn investors not to expect any near-term repeats. Odds of a January cut following one this week fell below 24% today in futures trading. Even tomorrow, not all policy makers seem likely to fall in line when the decision arrives at 2 p.m. ET. "We expect the Fed to cut by 25 basis points, but it won't be unanimous," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The argument to cut is based on evidence that the labor market is softening and could soften more. That could drag the economy down. The argument not to cut is based on the fact that inflation remains too high and isn't showing signs of cooling."

Monday ended four-day win streaks for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 index, though technology stocks got a boost from the chip market and news that the Trump administration will allow Nvidia (NVDA) to sell its H200 chip to China. Beyond that, investors appeared to be in risk-off mode following last week's run to near-record highs. Earnings tomorrow afternoon from Oracle (ORCL) and late Thursday from Broadcom (AVGO) put the spotlight squarely on chip and data center demand amid concerns about overspending, circular dealing, and the move from cash financing to heavy debt issuance.

1. Jobs picture gets an update: Another piece of the incomplete data puzzle snaps into place at 10 a.m. ET today when the government issues its September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. Consensus is 7.2 million, a high number historically that would be little changed from August. Any big dip might heighten suspicions that the labor market is weak. The "quits" rate in JOLTS is also worth watching, as it can indicate how tough it is to find a job. Workers are less likely to quit if demand for their services isn't evident or if they feel nervous about job prospects in general. Quits hit a high for the year above 3.31 million back in March but have generally fallen since, though there's no post-August data due to the shutdown. Also related to jobs, Fed policy makers tomorrow offer their outlooks on the labor and growth outlook. In September, they saw 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.8%, with unemployment stable at 4.4% and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation at 2.6%. Investors might want to keep a close eye on any changes to these projections, as well as the so-called "dot plot" of future rate expectations.
    
2. Yield sign still up ahead of Fed: The Treasury auctioned off a batch of 3-year notes Monday and saw decent demand. Despite that, the 10-year yield surged three basis points to 4.17%, the highest since late September, before easing slightly this morning. Though pressure on equities can come from multiple directions, it's probably fair to say that steadily rising yields contributed to Monday's weakness on Wall Street. There's concern that rate cuts could ignite more inflation, and this—along with fiscal stimulus from tax changes next year—is likely pushing yields higher on the long end of the curve. If the Fed's language tomorrow isn't tough in terms of pushing back prospects of further rate cuts, Treasury yields could rise more. Today brings a 10-year Treasury note auction, with results this afternoon. Any sign of weak demand might trigger more pressure on Treasuries and renewed headwinds for Wall Street.
    
3. Market barometers accurate once again: For those keeping score, Monday reinforced ideas that investors who monitor numbers beyond the major indexes each morning might get a better sense of where the market is heading. Monday before the open, major indexes were generally higher, led by tech. However, Treasury yields were up several basis points while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) popped 5% and bitcoin futures (/BTC) sagged. All these breadcrumbs suggested a tough road for the rally, and once trading started, stocks quickly fell into the red, staying there pretty much all day. The VIX ended up rising 8% yesterday, though it stayed relatively low, below 17. When both stocks and the VIX are up, frequently one or the other steps aside. Crypto has also been a recent barometer of risk tolerance across markets, and there's growing concern about the rapid rise in yields amid a variety of fundamental factors. Just as some baseball fans check the flags in the stadium to see if the wind indicates lots of home runs, investors might want to monitor these indicators early each day, though of course it's never a sure thing. The 10-year yield inched lower this morning, VIX climbed 1% and bitcoin was steady.

Nvidia (NVDA) climbed nearly 1% ahead of the open and is now up three of the last four sessions. It's unclear how important the H200 chips news might be, considering Beijing has discouraged Chinese companies from using U.S. chips. Also, H200 is a relatively low-powered chip compared to others made by Nvidia. And Trump hinted the U.S. government will take a 25% share of the sales.
 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) also climbed, both by less than 1%, after the Nvidia news. Both could end up making similar deals, Barron's reported.
 

Home Depot (HD) stumbled early Tuesday, falling nearly 2%. The company reaffirmed previous guidance and will discuss strategy at its investor and analyst conference today. It sees earnings per share falling nearly 5% in fiscal 2026 to slightly below consensus and sees revenue rising 3%.

Toll Brothers (TOL) slipped 5% in pre-market action after reporting earnings per share that missed analysts' consensus, though revenue surpassed Wall Street's expectations. In its press release, Toll Brothers referred to "soft demand across many markets." Competing homebuilder stocks also slipped.
 

CVS Health (CVS) climbed 3% early Tuesday after raising its full-year 2025 guidance, citing "meaningful momentum across our business."
 

AutoZone (AZO) dropped 2.5% in pre-market action after quarterly earnings per share missed consensus expectations.
 

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) rose 1% and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) climbed 0.75% in early action after Paramount made a competing bid Monday for Warner Bros. Discovery. Netflix (NFLX) bid for that company's studio and streaming business last week. Paramount offered to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery in a direct offer to shareholders. Shares of Netflix were slightly higher today.
 

Alphabet (GOOGL) fell more than 2% Monday. Recent weakness could reflect what appeared to be overbought conditions indicated by its relative strength index, or RSI, which rose above 75 late last month. Also, Bloomberg reported today that the European Union is investigating Google regarding its alleged imposition of unfair terms on content creators that gives its own AI model an advantage over its rivals.
 

Ares Management (ARES) climbed nearly 8% on news that the company, which specializes in private credit, will be added to the S&P 500.
 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) sank 2% early today after Goldman Sachs downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy, citing less favorable risk/reward given the supply and demand setup in the Caribbean and the cruise line's "outsized exposure" to that market.
 

Bitcoin (/BTC) barely moved early, falling 0.2% and remaining above the $90,000 level. Crypto-related stocks generally fell in pre-market trading.

The 10-year Treasury note yield's premium to the 3-month yield last week hit its widest spread since September 2022. This could reflect year-end optimism about the economy.

Discipline on the course: The latest episode of Invested in the Game features a chat with two-time Masters champion Bernhard Langer, who shares insights on his consistency and longevity on the PGA circuit.  

With three weeks left in 2025, major indexes remain on pace for double-digit gains, the third year in a row that the Nasdaq 100 (NDX-candlesticks) and S&P 500 index (SPX-purple line) have accomplished this. While the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT-blue line) remains behind in the race, it's close to all-time highs and recently outpaced the other indexes in coming back from November weakness, helped by hopes for falling rates.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

December 10: FOMC rate decision and earnings from Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Synopsys (SNPS), and Chewy (CHWY).

December 11: Expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO), Ciena (CIEN), lululemon (LULU), and Costco (COST).

December 12: No major earnings or data expected.

December 15: No major earnings or data expected.

December 16: November nonfarm payrolls and expected earnings from Lennar (LEN).