Stocks Up On Rate Hopes Following Crushing Losses

Published as of: November 21, 2025, 9:16 a.m. ET

(Friday market open) After yesterday's ugly reversal spoiled a tech rally fueled by Nvidia's (NVDA) solid results, investors return licking their wounds with crypto lower again but major indexes rising on renewed rate-cut hopes. Consumer sentiment is due after the open but other data and earnings are scarce, putting focus squarely on whether significant dip-buying emerges at current two-month lows. Several Magnificent Seven names edged higher in pre-market trading, but this week is still on pace to be the worst since April.

Cryptocurrencies and tech capsized yesterday as traders fled from risk amid falling rate cut odds, but optimism around a December rate cut surged this morning when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said he sees room for further policy easing. Chances of a cut soared to 71% from 39%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and Treasury yields fell.

It's hard to poke holes in Nvidia's results or guidance, but investors increasingly see its fundamentals as divorced from those of "hyperscalers" taking on debt to buy Nvidia's chips. "Demand for Nvidia chips was not the problem—it was and is about over-investment in AI infrastructure and debt issuance," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Lack of AI enthusiasm and fluttering crypto aren't the entire story behind yesterday's dramatic losses. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW)—which weighs all components equally—also fell sharply Thursday, indicating broader weakness beyond tech.

1. Fed outlooks seen hindered by data delay: The delay of November jobs data to December 16—after the Fed meeting—raises questions about how the central bank will handle its duties beyond rate policy. One concern is whether this might affect the Fed's ability to make quarterly forecasts, which include its inflation, unemployment, and gross domestic product estimates. It's unlikely the Fed would delay its those, but then again, it would have to make them without clarity on where things stand. "It may be January before we really have a good sense of how the economy is doing," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. The December rate decision could be a close vote. In the last 15 years, only five Fed meetings featured three dissents. This has the potential to be the sixth. Boston Fed President Susan Collins told CNBC this morning she's hesitant about a December cut but wants to wait for data before deciding.
    
2. No Thanksgiving break for Treasury auctions: With several important Treasury auctions ahead next week before the holiday, recent government data show a trend continuing in which U.S. Treasuries see more foreign buying from foreign private investors than foreign official investors. Foreign central banks were net sellers in both months and have now been net sellers in six of the last nine months. "Foreign private investors continue to pick up the slack, as they have been net Treasury buyers in all but one month this year," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR "Foreign central bank Treasury holdings have generally held near $4 trillion for more than ten years, so headlines about central bank selling is mostly overblown." Monday features a 2-year Treasury note auction followed by a 5-year note auction Tuesday. Auctions earlier this month were weak, possibly a factor that recently propelled yields to one-month highs, one reason stocks have been pressured.
    
3. Bitcoin slide tests weak hands: The pain has grown worse for bitcoin investors this week as the coin hit the lowest level since April. As of Thursday, about 37% of all bitcoin was in the red, meaning the holder would take a loss if they sold it at the market price, according to data provider Glassnode. That was down from less than 9% on October 26, when bitcoin had bounced to around $115,000. Of course, virtually no one (less than 1%) was holding a losing position on October 6, the day bitcoin hit a record high above $126,000. But with the market breaking below $87,000 Thursday, one question is how many short-term holders are willing to sit and watch as paper losses grow (or paper profits shrink).

• Nvidia surged 5% to start Thursday's session before finishing 3% lower, then edged up in pre-market action. Pressure on shares appeared to reflect technical selling and overall risk-off sentiment, not any delayed reaction to what most analysts agreed were very strong earnings and guidance.
   
• AI-related shares, which are down sharply as a group this week, found some buying interest early today. Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), CoreWeave (CRWV), Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Palantir (PLTR) all entered green territory at points before the open.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) fell sharply again this morning, losing 2.5% to near $84,000. Shares of crypto-related firms Coinbase (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) rose, but Strategy (MSTR) declined.
   
• Gap (GAP) spiked 7.5% early today after the retailer beat analysts' earnings consensus and reported sales rising 5% at stores open a year or more. It also raised its fiscal 2026 revenue to above the consensus view.
   
• Intuit (INTU), a business software firm, saw shares rise 4% ahead of the open after beating analysts' consensus earnings and revenue estimates.
   
• Shares of nuclear energy firm Oklo (OKLO) and quantum computing firm Rigetti Computing (RGTI) rose 4% and 2%, respectively, in early trading. Both are possible barometers of investor risk sentiment.
   
• Stocks associated with AI-related energy demand including NRG Energy (NRG) and GE Vernova (GEV) ran up gains in pre-market trading.
   
• The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages fell below 32% late yesterday, the lowest since April.
   
• The Nasdaq Composite ($COMP) went through a huge swing Thursday to carve an "outside day" on the charts, meaning its high was above Wednesday's high and its low was below Wednesday's low. A negative turn like this in a single session looks quite ugly on the charts and could point to further selling. Still, the index stayed narrowly above its 100-day moving average.
   
• The S&P 500 index closed below its 100-day moving average Thursday for the first time since May. That level, at 6,544, had represented support right near October's low of 6,552. The October low got taken out Thursday and the index is now at two-month lows, down more than 5% from its late-October all-time high.
   
• Volatility surged again Thursday. The VIX was up more than 11% by late in the session to above 26 after topping 28 earlier in the day and getting close to last month's peak of almost 29. VIX hasn't hit 30 since April 23, but the last two months have seen evidence of far more hedging activity, indicating caution ahead.
   
• Consensus is for no change from the initial November reading of a lackluster 50.3 in today's final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, due at 10 a.m. ET, according to Briefing.com.

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It may seem that everything is falling this week, but one exception is the U.S. dollar index ($DXY—candlesticks). It not only rose yesterday, it made a seven-month high and eclipsed its 200-day moving average (blue line). It hadn't been above the 200-day line since early March, before tariff policy and the Fed's rate cuts helped send it to a three-year low below 97 in September. The quick reversal reflects possible flight to perceived safety as the stock and crypto market sink, as well as the Fed's more hawkish rate stance and weakness in the yen.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 24: Expected earnings from Zoom Communications (ZM).
November 25: November consumer confidence and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Nio (NIO), Analog Devices (ADI), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dell (DELL), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Urban Outfitters (URBN), HP (HPQ), and Petco (WOOF).
November 26: October new home sales and expected earnings from Deere (DE).
November 27: U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday.
November 28: No major data or earnings expected.