Crude, Chips Deliver Early Tailwind Ahead of CPI

Published as of: June 9, 2026, 9:15 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Crude oil fell 2% early today, boosting major indexes ahead of this week's main event: inflation data. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow and the Producer Price Index (PPI), due Thursday, are key tipping points before next week's Federal Reserve meeting, and trading could be rangebound ahead of the numbers. Despite oil's drop on hopes for progress resolving the war, Treasury yields remain elevated, a possible hindrance to any rally attempt.

May's CPI and PPI won't tell investors where inflation might head from here—that's the Fed's job to glean—but could hint if oil-driven price growth showed up in the core figures that don't directly include energy and food costs. For CPI, analysts expect 0.5% headline growth month over month and 0.3% core growth. Both would be slightly down from 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in April. Headline CPI is seen up 4.3% year over year.

Stocks were mixed Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq holding most of their early gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed marginally lower. The advance was shallow, however, as just three of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by info tech. Data is light today but May existing home sales due at 10 a.m. ET are expected to rise 0.6% from April. Earnings action resumes late Wednesday with Oracle (ORCL), another barometer of AI spending demand after Broadcom's (AVGO) outlook last week appeared to disappoint, and chips stocks flexed more muscle this morning following Monday's rebound.

1. Early thinking ahead of CPI: Core CPI is especially important. A big increase would potentially indicate businesses raising prices to account for higher energy costs. Their other option might be to cut services or accept lower margins while keeping prices unchanged. It's a tough decision many face. Should businesses decide on the latter, the impact might be pressure on jobs and wage growth. There are signs this could already be happening. Friday's University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment report could provide additional insight into any rockiness in jobs and wages related to inflation pressure on companies. If people are worried, it can show up in sentiment and confidence first. Though just one week of data, last week's initial jobless claims report was the highest in three months at 225,000. And lost in the shuffle Friday amid concerns about an overheating economy was a significant jump in May layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, to 97,000 from around 83,000 in April. Today's May U.S. small business optimism tracked by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) fell to its lowest level since October 2024, hurt by rising fuel costs.
    
2. On the block, with Wall Street implications: Though stocks recovered a bit Monday, Treasury yields stayed elevated after Friday's sharp move. This means Treasury auctions may draw extra attention moving forward. This week features a 3-year note auction today and a 10-year note auction tomorrow, both of which could come under scrutiny after recent auctions generated tepid demand. Results typically become available by early afternoon. Weak demand for U.S. Treasuries would possibly send yields even higher and mean rougher roads for any stock market recovery. Another potential catalyst for higher yields is the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate decision Thursday morning. Analysts expect the ECB to raise rates as it tries to fend off inflation, Reuters reported. Shifts in European interest-rate expectations can potentially have an impact on U.S. bond yields as global fixed-income markets are closely interconnected.
    
3. Retail traders re-embraced chips in May: The Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) rebounded last month after declines in March and April, though some of the same themes remained. Three of the 10 most net-bought names were diversified exchange-traded funds (ETF), down from five in April but still suggestive of broader positioning and a continued effort to reduce concentration risk. Overall, the STAX rose 9.94% to 55.08 from 50.1 in April. Nvidia (NVDA) went from the top net-sold stock in April to the heaviest net-bought name in May, while memory chipmaker Micron (MU) ranked just behind it. Intel (INTC) was another semiconductor name that drew strong client interest during the month. At the same time, clients trimmed exposure to some other AI rally winners, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Oracle (ORCL). They also took both sides of the software trade as that sector continued to recover. It's a dramatic change from April when clients were big sellers of semiconductors and buyers of software.

• Chip stocks, especially those in the memory area, led early gains Tuesday. Micron rose almost 5%, SanDisk (SNDK) rose 4%, and Marvell (MRVL) climbed 4%. Tech in general appeared to get a boost to start the trading day, though news was thin. South Korean chip stocks rose earlier, which may have provided a spark for U.S. names.
   
• Applied Digital (APLD) climbed 11%. The company signed a 15-year lease with a U.S. AI hyperscaler, Bloomberg reported.
   
• Vail Resorts (MTN) hit an ice patch, falling 5% as the ski resort operator cut its full-year net income guidance. "Weather conditions remained extremely unfavorable in the third quarter, adding to what had already been one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S., driving continued pressure on visitation and revenue," the company said.
   
• Apple (AAPL) dropped 1.8% Monday and slipped slightly this morning after the company unveiled an AI-upgraded version of its virtual assistant Siri that's built on Alphabet's (GOOGL) Gemini technology at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Apple also launched a standalone Siri App, announced new AI features for its iOS 27 operating system, and revealed new Safari updates. Wall Street analysts delivered mostly upbeat reviews, but none changed their ratings on the stock.
   
• J.M. Smucker (SJM) climbed 2.8% early today following better than expected earnings per share and in-line revenue. However, it guided for revenues below Wall Street's fiscal 2027 consensus.
   
• Crypto-related stocks dipped early Tuesday as bitcoin (/BTC) fell more than 1%.
   
• Toll Brothers (TOL) climbed 1.7% before the open following an upgrade to outperform from market perform by Keefe Bruyette, which said home builders like Toll Brothers exposed to affluent buyers are better positioned to defend margins. The analyst downgraded Lennar (LEN) to underperform from market perform, citing the company's high entry-level exposure.
   
• Intel (INTC) surged more than 11% Monday after The Information reported the chipmaker inked a deal with Alphabet to make more than 3 million specialized AI chips.
   
• Exports from China rose 19.4% in May to a record high. Strong AI demand—including for hardware—helped, as did front-loading of products amid rising energy prices. Chips and computers accounted for roughly 50% of the growth in exports and imports, Bloomberg said. Rising prices accounted for most of the surge, because volume-wise exports rose just 2%.
   
• Technically, the 7,450 level remains possible resistance in the S&P 500 Index. The May low of 7,330 could represent support.

Split screen: Last week, cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike (CRWD) announced a four-for-one stock split. Our newest article examined stock splits in general, including why they're done and how they tend to affect the market.

Price increases show signs of pass-through: Businesses appeared to shift price increases downstream at the fastest pace in more than a decade in April, according to the Producer Price Index for trade services. Another strong reading for May would offer additional evidence that businesses are passing along price increases at a time when higher oil prices, tariffs, and other factors are creating upstream price pressures.

AI impact on inflation? Though energy prices take center stage when investors mull tomorrow's CPI report, another possible factor behind rising costs could conceivably be AI. "The bigger thing a lot of investors are watching out for is whether this pace of inflation pressure is broadening, especially for things that are related to this capital spending cycle that we continue to see," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR, in his latest Week Ahead video.

Though the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlesticks) made a little headway Monday following Friday's painful selloff, it wasn't technically much to write home about. Namely, the index failed to close above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA—blue line) for the second straight session after closing above it every day since early April. It might be constructive for stocks if the index could reclaim and stay above that level, but after flirting with it early yesterday, the index flagged.

June 10: May CPI, May core CPI, and expected earnings from Chewy (CHWY) and Oracle (ORCL).
June 11: ECB interest rate decision, May PPI and core PPI, and expected earnings from Adobe (ADBE) and Lennar (LEN).
June 12: University of Michigan June preliminary consumer sentiment.
June 15: May industrial production.
June 16: Start of FOMC meeting, May housing starts and building permits.