Looking to the Futures

The headwinds have not come from the supply side. In fact, the September USDA Crop Production report did indicate a strong yield for the 2025 harvest. Mostly, the uncertainty has come from the demand side as China, who is historically one of the largest importers of U.S. soybeans, has not made any purchases from the U.S. this season. President Donald Trump has indicated a plan to bail out farmers that are impacted by the recent trade disputes, indicating an aid package in the range of 10-15 billion dollars. The Trump administration claimed these funds would be coming from the approximate 215 billion dollars the United States has raised from implementing tariffs. However, the continued government shutdown prevents this type of Congressional action needed for a payout of this size leaving farmers no choice but to continue to store their soybeans until a trade deal is reached. Trump plans to meet with China's Xi Jinping later this month and anticipates soybeans as a major topic of concern. Fortunately, soybeans can store for several months, to even over a year. This mostly depends on the moisture content during storage, with around 13% moisture being ideal in the winter months and even lower percentages for longer storage, like over a year for example. Currently the forecast continues to remain drier than average, helping farmers store beans outside of grain bins, in some cases leaving beans outside covered by tarps. 

Corn futures (/ZCZ25) are trading flat this morning. Corn has seen good yields for this harvest season. Although we do not expect to see a USDA report this week, September numbers did come in strong, up 13% from the previous year. Southern Rust was a large concern earlier in the year, a disease that attacks the leaves of the corn plant, disrupting the plants' ability to photosynthesize which often leads to lower yield and grain quality. Fortunately, effective management practices were able to control the spread early on. 

Chicago Soft Red Wheat futures (/ZWZ25) are trading up four and a quarter points this morning. The World Agricultural and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, will be delayed as the government shutdown continues. Uncertainty continues as the weather report turns dry for much of the winter wheat growing region in the next week. Wheat prices have pulled back over the past year, opening at 594.75 on October 9th of 2024 and today at 508.00. Kansas City Wheat (/KEZ25) was trading up just about three and a half points this morning, opening at 494 and hard red spring wheat futures (/HRSZ25) last traded at 537.00.  

The one-year daily chart does show upward momentum over the past couple of days as we have come off the low of 993.75 from October 1st as we have crossed the 20 and 50-day moving averages and just touched the 200 – day moving average at the high of today. The Hightower report suggests that momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range as well, indicating support for an upward move if beans can push through resistance levels. The Hightower report indicates the next area of resistance at 1026.75 and 1030.75, while the first support hit today at 1017.25 and below there at 1012. 

Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

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EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

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New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• Micro Corn (/MZC)
• Micro Wheat (/MZW)
• Micro Soybean (/MZS)
• Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
• Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.